Romanian economic growth predicted to exceed 7% in 2008, according to top lender Banca Comerciala Romana

Romania's economic growth could exceed 7 percent this year underpinned by healthy cash inflows from taxes on products and services, by constructions' advance, plus a slight increase of industry and agriculture, Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR), the country's top lender by assets, gauged.

BCR economists deem the first quarter of the year could be the best in terms of economic growth. Nevertheless, analysts still estimate the gross domestic product (GDP) to reach 6.1 percent this year and 6 percent in 2009. The National Forecast Commission (CNP) said 6.5 percent for 2008.

"In an optimistic scenario, the GDP could exceed 7 percent this year if tendency from the beginning of the year carries on," the most recent BCR report on macro economy shows.

Romania's economy grew 6 percent in real terms last year to 404.7 billion lei (121.3 billion Euros). GDP rose by almost 24 billion Euros last year following the strengthening of the leu.

CNP maintains its estimates for the coming years as follows: 6.1 percent in 2009, 5.8 percent for 2010 and 2011 and 5.7 percent for 2012 and 2013.

The weather remains an uncontrollable factor which may influence economy this year more than the international financial turmoil, BCR's report further shows. Severe drought affected the country's crops last summer plaguing agricultural production significantly.

BCR economists foresee the acceleration of the average inflation to 7.6 percent in 2008 from 4.84 percent last year for an average exchange rate estimated at 3.60 lei per euro. CNP said 7 percent in 2008 and an average exchange rate of 3.55 lei per euro.

Analysts also remind that annual inflation could exceed the 8.3 percent level estimated by the central bank but could come back to a descending trend in the second half of the year.